Every 7 Months: The Moore's Law for Agent Autonomy

**METR** published a paper measuring AI agent autonomy progress, showing it has doubled every 7 months since **2019 (GPT-2)**. They introduced a new metric, the **50%-task-completion time horizon**, where models like **Claude 3.7 Sonnet** achieve 50% success in about 50 minutes. Projections estimate **1 day autonomy by 2028** and **1 month autonomy by late 2029**. Meanwhile, **Nvidia** released **Cosmos-Transfer1** for conditional world generation and **GR00T-N1-2B**, an open foundation model for humanoid robot reasoning with 2B parameters. **Canopy Labs** introduced **Orpheus 3B**, a high-quality text-to-speech model with zero-shot voice cloning and low latency. **Meta** reportedly delayed **Llama-4** release due to performance issues. **Microsoft** launched **Phi-4-multimodal**.